The following is a random collection of statistics, articles, and predictions by individuals that have publicly declared their bullish or bearish opinions on the US stock market. Strategies and predictions may be based on everything from old fashioned economics to technical analysis and astrology. It's common for opinions to change quickly, so keep in mind that these may not convey prognosticator's current opinions, and some advisors may have differing opinions regarding different time frames. Nevertheless, the following predictions are drawn from verifiable sources and are "on the record". Investor Home doesn't imply any credibility on any of the individuals or their predictions nor are you encouraged to act on this information. Whether you view this as information of value or strictly as entertainment, you'll find both bullish and bearish opinions here.
Current Statistics - See Psychology
- Barron's Investor Sentiment Readings $$
- Louis Rukeyser's "elves"
- Investor Sentiment from Low Risk
- Investors League also has an investor sentiment index
- A complete collection of current indicators including GDP, leading & coincident indicators, and consumer confidence can be viewed (in Adobe Acrobat format) at Dr. Edward Yardeni's Stock Indicators (including Bull/Bear Sentiment).
- Index of Investor Optimism from Painewebber.
- Put/call ratios and related statistics can be found on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) web site.
Bull Books Bear Books
- James Glassman & Kevin Hassett (bios) are the authors of the book Dow 36,000 and their article titled Dow 36,000 appeared in The Atlantic Monthly in September. See also Dow 36,000? (10/22/99) from Andrew Tobias, Burton Malkiel on Dow 36,000 $$ from The Wall Street Journal (9/22/99), Bill Bernstein on Dow 36,000 from Morningstar (9/13/99), and Scott Burns on Dow 36,000? (9/26/99). See also Dow 36,000 and Beyond from Worth and Stocktopia from Wired (September 1999).
- Roger Ibbotson of Ibbotson Associates predicted the DJIA would hit 10,000 by year-end 2001, 34,000 by 2015 and 53,000 by 2020 in "I am a bull" by Robert Lenzner in Forbes (6/16/97). Ibbotson has now predicted 120,000 by 2025. See Ibbotson's Dow Forecasts.
- Harry Dent (author of The Roaring 2000s and The Great Boom Ahead) projected the Dow hitting 21,500 by the end of 2008 and possibly a peak of as high as 35,000 according to "Seer Speaks" in Barron's (7/6/98). He has since "bumped that to 41,000." (Barron's 4/5/99).
- Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs. According to the NY Times (12/26/99) she projected the S&P 500 at 1,525 and the Dow at 12,300 at the end of next year. She has argued that "The market is roughly at fair value" for more than year now. See also Cohen's page at Smart Money.
- Dr. Edward Yardeni of Deutsche Bank Securities returned to being bullish after acknowledging that he was wrong about the economic impact of Y2K. He projected 15,000 on the DJIA by 2005. See also Yardeni's page at Smart Money.
- Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities sees Dow 14,000 in Y2K according to an article in Forbes (12/21/99) and predicted at the end of 1999 that the NASDAQ could reach 5,000 in 2000. He was bullish at the start of 1999 after waffling back and forth in 1998. He was credited with contributing to the August 4, 1998 299 point down day by making bearish comments on CNBC as the market was dropping. Earlier in the year he predicting Dow 10,000 in 1999 (Source: Money 4/98). A few months before that he had reservations and believed 1998 would be a difficult year and that the Dow could plummet to 6,000 by late in the year (LA Times 12/19/97 and Wall Street Week 1/2/98). Acampora was previously one of Wall Street's most vocal bulls and had correctly forecast 8250 on the Dow before year end 1997. He expected a bear market by 1998 to be followed by another huge gain (Source: Wall Street Journal 2/14/97). Acampora also has predicted the Dow at 18,500 in nine years (7/14/97).
- Tom Galvin of Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette saw the DJIA at 11,000 for Yearend 1999, 13,000 by the end of year 2000 and said it could hit 16,000 by 2006 according to Barron's (10/18/99, 3/22/99, and 1/1/99).
- Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter predicted the DJIA will close above 10000 at the end of 1999 according to the WSJ (1/5/98) $$.
- Mike Astrachan was very bullish according to articles in Barron's on 11/15/96 and 6/16/97. He predicted 12000 on the DJIA within two years. But according to Barron's on 6/30/98, Astrachan has "cashed in his chips" and "While he's still bullish on the market over the long term, he counsels a sideline position over the next year or two."
- John Cleland of Security Benefit Group of Companies predicted the DJIA would hit 10000 by the year 2000 (Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser - 2/21/97).
- Joseph Granville of The Granville Market Letter projected the Dow at 12000-14000 between now and the start of 2000 (Barron's 6/9/97 and 6/23/97).
- Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter expects the market to suffer through "another leg of the bear market." He expects the next leg to bring stocks down 10% lower than their lows of the summer, although he expects it to be part of a "normal" bear market, not the beginning of an epochal decline. Source: WSJ (1/5/98) $$.
- Henry Weingarten of the The Astrologer's Fund forecasts 7001.67 on the DJIA for the end of 1999 (his predictions).
- Arch Crawford, Crawford Perspectives. In April of 1997, Crawford predicted the market would drop between 35% and 50% over the following one-and-a-half to two-and-a-half years. Crawford got a lot of publicity from his seemingly prophetic recommendation to go short the market before 2/19/97 (the market temporarily peaked on 2/18) but the market then rose to new heights. Crawford had one of the best records among market timers according to Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Digest. Crawford's recommendations are based on (believe it or not) astrology, along with a host of technical indicators. (Sources: CNBC 4/16/97, Los Angeles Times 2/9/97)
- Robert Prechter, The Elliot Wave Theorist. According to Business Week (11/18/96), Prechter predicted the market will plummet more than 50% over the next two years, followed by a 1930s-style depression. According to the Wall Street Journal (7/17/97), Prechter has lost 75% of his clients since 1988 and recently put together a special report explaining that the Dow will inevitably plunge below 400 (95% decline).
- Steve Leuthold, Leuthold/Weeden Research. According to Barron's "The Masochists' Ball" (10/13/97) "He compared a fully-invested position in U.S. stocks these days to careening along a dangerous mountain road at 100 m.p.h. with a dropoff on the cliff side of 4,000 feet (or 4,000 Dow points). Leuthold saw the market dropping 15%-20% according to Barron's (5/2/97 and 6/16/97).
- Richard Hokenson, Chief Economist at DLJ predicted a stock market drop of 30% in Barron's (12/20/96). According to Barron's "Wacky to the End" (8/18/97) Hokenson was no longer predicting a 1997 recession or a stock market crash although he remains cautious.
- Justin Mamis, The Mamis Letter. Mamis predicted a drop below 5200 and as low as 4600 in Barron's (9/20/96).
- Albert Edwards, of Kleinwort Benson sees the Dow going to 5800. He thinks earnings anticipations are overblown according to Alan Abelson's "Paradigm Lost?" $$ in Barron's (10/13/97).
Bull and Bear ArticlesWhat a Year (Predictions) $$ from Barron's (1/3/00) Still Bullish, but Pulling in the Horns and Down and Out on Wall St.: Still Bears After All These Years RR from the NYTimes (12/26/99) The Bear Market Reader from Scott Burns Bear's Cave from 401K Kafe The February 2000 issue of Smart Money included their rating of Wall Street's top strategists. The article titled "The Future is Now" by Stacey L. Bradford follows up on prior issues dating back to at least 1997. Smart Money has based the rankings on predictions regarding numerous criteria including the Dow and S&P 500, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, the economy, 30 year T-bond yield, and individual stocks or sectors. The Pundits rankings are updated regularly on the web site. Summaries of the Guru's predictions along with a description of how the ratings are derived are also included.
- Can Stocks Still Rise? is an interview in Fortune (8/18/97) with Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley and Robert Farrell of Merrill Lynch.
- DON'T WORRY, BE BULLISH from Business Week (8/4/97)
- Can We Talk? in Fortune (6/9/97) is an interview with Abby Joseph Cohen, Jim Grant, and Shelby Davis.
- Teddy Bears in Worth (6/97).
- According to the Wall Street Journal, long time bull Edward Kerschner of PaineWebber pulled in his horns on May 13, 1997 and turned "neutral." Kerschner had been bullish since the middle of 1994. The Journal listed Abby Cohen, Greg Smith of Prudential and Jeffrey Applegate among the remaining bulls.
- How the market CAN go to 10,000 by 2000 Forbes (3/24/97).
- Can you trust forecasts by economists? (Money Daily 3/7/97) is directed toward economic projections in particular but is highly relevant to other forecasters.
- 4 "experts" predictions for 1997 from Money.
- BusinessWeek's (12/30/96) End of the Bull Session? and Market Survey for 1997 (in Adobe Acrobat format) with predictions from 45 analysts for midyear and yearend DJIA and S&P500. Highest prediction for yearend DJIA was 7500 from Greg A. Smith. Lowest was 4400 from Robert F. Dickey.
- PBS Articles
Selected Quotes"Clearly the price considered most likely by the market is the true current price: if the market judged otherwise, it would quote not this price, but another price higher or lower."
Louis Bachelier "Any man who is a bear on the future of this country will go broke."
J.P. Morgan (the link is to Biography.com) "Bears don't live on Park Avenue."
Bernard Baruch (the link is to Biography.com) My definition of a guru is someone who is lucky enough to be quoted in the right publication at the right time saying the right thing.
Herb Greenberg (The Street - 3/4/98) "We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know--and those who don't know they don't know."
John Kenneth Galbraith (the link is to Biography.com) "Remember the First Law of Economics: For every economist, there is an equal and opposite economist--so for every bullish economist, there is a bearish one. The Second Law of Economics: They are both likely to be wrong."
William A. Sherden in The Fortune Sellers
The Big Business of Selling and Buying Predictions "Personally, I think everybody who predicts the future with a straight face should be required (by federal law) to change out of the business suit, wrap him/herself in a gypsy shawl, wear one of those pointed wizard's hats with a picture of a crescent moon on it, and make conjuring sounds over a crystal ball. That way, everybody would know exactly what's going on and how much credibility to give the answer."
Robert N. Veres, "The Vision Thing" in "Investment Advisor" RR (June 97)
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